Growing old in, and with, Japan

This article on the awfulness of pregnancy is also relevant to a discussion of demographics. While aging is no rose garden -- and dying probably hurts -- pregnancy is hell. Apparently.

Just want to add a footnote. It sounds rather as if Haffner is portraying this...

11 workers supported two retirees in 1960

...as the good old days. It's worth bearing in mind that what that figure reflects isn't just a vibrant young thrusting nation. It's also a nation that's recently seen big parts of its population wiped out in a war, and a nation where people die much younger (through worse nutrition and lower standards of living) than they do now.

Japan's problems today are, in a sense, "the problems of paradise".

Also: the population of the UK (an only-slightly-smaller island, 244,000 square kilometers compared to Japan's 377,000) is about half the size of Japan's. Population density in Britain is 248 people per sq km, in the Japan it's 336. Even with a really radical population reduction, Japan simply becomes Britain (with better food). Is that so terrible?

Population decline: economic consequences puts both the pros and the cons. Here, from that article, are some of the pros:

* Standard of living does not necessarily correlate with quality of life, which may even increase as the population declines due to presumably reduced pollution and consumption of natural resources.

* There may also be reduced pressure on infrastructure, education, and other services as well.

* Predictions of the net economic (and other) effects from a slow and continuous population decline (e.g. due to low fertility rates) are mainly theoretical since such a phenomenon is a relatively new and unprecedented one.

* The decade long economic malaise of Japan and Germany is often linked to these demographic problems. However, the economies of both Japan and Germany went into recovery around the time their populations just began to decline (2003–2006). In other words, both the total and per capita GDP in both countries grew more rapidly after 2005 than before. Russia's economy also began to grow rapidly from 1999 onward, even though its population has been shrinking since 1992-93 (the decline is now decelerating).

* In addition, many Eastern European countries have been experiencing similar effects to Russia. Such renewed growth calls into question the conventional wisdom that economic growth requires population growth, or that economic growth is impossible during a population decline.

* In a country with a declining population, the growth of GDP per capita is higher than the growth of GDP. For example, Japan has a higher growth per capita than the United States, even though the US GDP growth is higher than Japan's. Even when GDP growth is zero or negative, the GDP growth per capita can still be positive (by definition) if the population is shrinking faster than the GDP.

* A declining population (regardless of the cause) can also create a labor shortage, which can have a number of positive as well as negative effects. While some labor-intensive sectors of the economy may be hurt if the shortage is severe enough, others may adequately compensate by increased outsourcing and/or automation. Initially, the labor participation rates (which are low in many countries) can also be increased to temporarily reduce or delay the shortage. On the positive side, such a shortage increases the demand for labor, which can potentially result in a reduced unemployment rate as well as higher wages.

About an hour ago, troll! And you?

Beethoven uses too many notes, and his chord sequences are terribly predictable.

It's a kind thought, but I'm actually very down on CDs at the moment. Each one makes me think "How will I divest myself of this plastic thing?"